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翻訳と辞書　辞書検索 [ 開発暫定版 ] スポンサード リンク Scenario analysis ： ウィキペディア英語版 Scenario analysis Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future developments. Consequently, a scope of possible future outcomes is observable. Not only are the outcomes observable, also the development paths leading to the outcomes. In contrast to prognoses, the scenario analysis is not using extrapolation of the past. It does not rely on historical data and does not expect past observations to be still valid in the future. Instead, it tries to consider possible developments and turning points, which may only be connected to the past. In short, several scenarios are demonstrated in a scenario analysis to show possible future outcomes. It is useful to generate a combination of an optimistic, a pessimistic, and a most likely scenario. Although highly discussed, experience has shown that around three scenarios are most appropriate for further discussion and selection. More scenarios could make the analysis unclear. == Principle == The analysis is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing consideration of outcomes and their implications. Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate "wild cards." For example, analysis of the possibility of the earth being struck by a large celestial object (a meteor) suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest. However, this possibility is usually disregarded by organizations using scenario analysis to develop a strategic plan since it has such overarching repercussions. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Scenario analysis」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク 翻訳と辞書 : 翻訳のためのインターネットリソース Copyright(C) kotoba.ne.jp 1997-2016. All Rights Reserved.